Posted by
A Right Brainer on Thursday, October 09, 2008 6:47:46 PM
Pheeeeeeeeeew…. Let me do that again Pheeeeeeeeeew. Ah much better.
“What’s that all about RB?”
I’m glad you asked. Since the bailout boondoggle passed , my rudder has been broken, (for the non-nautical, it means I was adrift). That complete failure of government, coupled with an election that “appears” to be heading the wrong way, coupled with the outbursts of negativity on the MSM (including Fox) and the New media here at TH and other places, has caused me to partake of the doom and gloom and my anger turned to despair.
“No, say it ain’t so RB!”
Sadly it’s true, and I suspect all of you have felt it as well to some degree or another. But that day and those feelings are over. Today is the first day of the rest of this campaign and frankly the rest of my life. It’s time to get down to business, or rather continue the business at hand.
“What business is that?”
Again I’m glad you asked, it is the business of conservatives at the individual level. It is the conversion of the electorate to our principles, but more so it is understanding our principles in light of the current situation or any other situation for that matter. To that end, this is my therapy and I some respect I hope it is yours as well. I beg your forgiveness and patience with the length and rambling of this post, but a consistent thread shall emerge throughout the discussions herein. That thread being Capitalism.
There are several topics I wish to touch on. They are, in no particular order, the following:
Polls – Hope and Fear
Economy – the 5 Ts of Capitalism
Moving forward – Nov 5 and beyond
As has been the refrain of my other posts, I intend to strip away my emotion and look at things plainly, as is right for a conservative capitalist. So lets begin this journey through the what some may seem the wreckage of our country and values and try to put a little perspective on the current mess.
There is a caveat to this discussion and for those of you familiar with investing you will recognize it readily, but it applies to everything not just investing.
“Ok RB, we here ya what is it?”
On the bottom of every prospectus (that thing that shows stock performance, for those not familiar), in italicized fine print are the words:
“Past performance is not an indication of future results.”
Please keep that in mind as I interweave the past into the following discussions.
“Gotcha, RB, thanks for the warning”
Polls: – Hope and Fear
For some reason, we in America have overriding misconceptions about the validity of poll data. This is compounded by the news media that put so much stock in poll results.
Misconception number one: Polling data is some how an indicator of the final outcome of an election. This is patently false.
“It is? How so RB?”
A poll is simply a snapshot in time, a very brief time at that. It is only an indication of the mood of the PEOPLE POLLED in regards to the QUESTIONS ASKED at that specific time. Nothing more nothing less. Mood changes from day to day, this is one of the things we know as conservatives, We almost always preface any discussion with the phrase “I think…” Liberals and a good portion of the middle preface discussions with the phrase “I feel…” That is no small difference when it comes to understanding people’s position in general and poll data specifically. Feelings change, frequently in fact. Thoughts rarely do, and only after facts are presented.
Misconception number two: Polls are fair. Again this is patently false.
Simple capitalist question: Who is paying for the poll? We have all seen the case of a poll being touted as exclusive “CNN-Gallup”, “Rasmussen-Fox” etc. Pollesters have general profit motive in the results of the poll. Sure they claim to be fair and unbiased but does anyone believe that MSNBC would commission a second poll if the last one showed a conservative ahead by a large margin? Additionally, we must ask what questions are being asked? To this I have direct empirical knowledge. I was polled during the VP debate. Most of the questions were straightforward enough, in terms of progressive answer e.g. “do you, support, somewhat support, somewhat not support, and not support”. There were several that were not so easily answered, so much that I almost tripped up and gave the wrong answer, one in opposition to what I actually think. Me, go figure! The point is this though, that had I answered it the way I first intended in opposition to what I actually think, two things would have happened; first the poll result would have been skewed in a direction opposite to what I believe, and second on Nov 4 the truth would be known about my position. Because in the polling booth, there is no trick question it is merely yes or no.
In support of this let me add, and my numbers may be off by one or two points because I don’t want to take the time to research it directly, but the illustration will remain valid. In 2000 Gore lead by almost 9 points over Bush and yet Bush won, In 2004 Kerry led by a similar margin, and yet still Bush won. Folks, here me on this please, polls are irrelevant, they mean absolutely nothing in reality.
What they do mean is that you must be on your guard emotionally to not buy into the despair they are trying to foist on you in an effort to quiet you and those even less steady in their principles. If conservatives, like many of the pundits on our side, buy into the pollaganda they will not rally at the grass roots level. They will not go out and persuade those who still sit on the fence, they will be unprepared when someone one says “what about the polls?” They will give up. Well now you know, and know you are prepared. Don’t give up! Not ever! Don’t believe in polls believe in the American people who, when presented with facts, clearly and coherently, will make the right choice. Now make a point to get out and talk to people , whomever you come in contact with about your values, about conservative principles, why Polls lie, and how our principles are the real answer.
Economy – what’s next
“Finally RB Thanks for the discussion about polls, but we want to hear about capitalism! Isn’t that what your post title was?”
I know but I needed to vent and give some words of encouragement. The precepts of capitalism can be applied to every situation that life presents, Capitalism is more than money, it is a way of life that is breed into American DNA. In fact I’ll go one step further it is part of human DNA, part of the highest ideals of humanity. It is in its essence; fairness. Not the overtly socialist/concept of fairness, in which equal outcome is the ideal, but the real fairness of equal chance at greatness. I have kids so I am going to quote a kids movie for you that comes to mind right now.
You remember the movie “The Incredibles”? There is a particular line where the mom is speaking to the young boy who can run superhumanly fast. She says “Honey, everyone is special.” To his complaint about why he should hide his abilities. His reply is so profound that it bears repeating here. “That’s just another way of saying nobody is.” That is the capitalist mindset. All have opportunity to become special, but only some ever reach that far, whether it is in terms of financial success, athletic success or familial success.
My view of capitalism can be expressed as “The Five T’s”
“Huh? There you go again, what the heck are you talking about RB?”
Five T’s I tell you, four capital “T’s” and one lowercase “t”. Further this view can be somewhat expressed in a mathematical formula:
(T1 + T2 + T3 + t4) – (T5) = Wealth
No these are not Swartzenegger movies. Let me explain further.
“Good because you are making no sense RB!”
I know, sorry. It’s the analytical side of my brain. Here is what those “T’s” represent.
T1 = Time
T2 = Talent
T3 = Treasure
t4 = Transfer
T5 = Taxes
Keep in mind that wealth is not defined by a specific dollar figure. Wealth is properly defined as value. That value may be great or small but it has a value nonetheless. So even the very poor have something of value, the rich may have more something’s of value but the bottom line is both the rich and the poor have value.
In fact this is the dignity that is lost in the socialism mindset that promulgates class warfare. It is the defining of the poor as valueless. So much so that they need the other class, who have value, to take care of them in their valuelessess. It assigns them a position in society as hopeless, they have no value, they cannot gain value, they will forever be dependent upon those “of value”. This is morally wrong, and in direct opposition to whatever words they use to spin it.
So how then do we achieve wealth in our society? American society is fundamentally capitalist, even now after this insane bailout. But it is partially socialist, and continuing down that road. The word entitlements is packed full of socialist inference. Whenever you hear that word, regardless of the topic, it is a socialist program, be it social security, unemployment, Veterans, whatever. I am not saying those are good or bad things, I am merely defining their role in our society.
There are basically four distinct phases in the accumulation of wealth by individuals. They are the first of my T’s, Time, Talent, Treasure, transfer. Each of these can coincide and overlap at various stages or wealth accumulation.
In fact the first three are what our founding father’s meant by “inalienable rights, endowed by our creator”. It is our inalienable right to utilize our time, talent and treasure in the pursuit of happiness, however you determine to define it for you and your family.
“Yeah I think I get it, but why is transfer in there RB?”
I’ll get to it I promise but not just yet. Achieving wealth in our society begins with the basics of all human accumulation of wealth since the beginning of our existence. Time.
In simpler terms, Time = Labor. Every entrant into the job market has that one thing given to him by virtue of birth, regardless of the financial status of their family. Time can properly be used in the accumulation of wealth by “spending” it on productive ventures, typically this is spent in gaining a wage or profit.
In this first phase of wealth accumulation, the vast majority of Americans, have little talent (defined as marketable skill set) or treasure (defined as disposable income, or that which is not necessary to the continuation of your lifestyle). Through the use of one’s time in a capitalist society you can achieve a wage that provides a basis for your continued existence. You trade your time for a dollar figure that equates or accedes the value you place on your time. In doing this, you are able to maintain your existence while developing talents, that will hopefully serve you in the next phase of wealth accumulation.
The duration of this phase, that is laboring, most likely physically, for a specified profit is dependant upon multiple factors, not the least of which is the comfort of the laborer. If a laborer is content with his lifestyle he may continue in this phase for the duration of his career, whatever career that may be.
No matter the duration, the capitalist view is simple; time is the most precious of all commodities, once spent it can NEVR be regained.
The fairness of opportunity exists in the choice of each individual on how to “spend” their time. They can choose to wile it away doing nothing or they can choose to utilize it to gain a wage, and talents to be used in the furthering of their wealth accumulation. It is their choice.
Transfer runs through each phase but it is here where it begins. Transfer is in direct opposition to the concept of time utilized for accumulation of wealth. Under the transfer mentality a man may choose not to use his time for anything other than collecting and cashing a check that amounts to the transfer of the wealth created by those who sacrificed their time for their own goals. Where is the fairness in that? The morality of doing good to our neighbor is lost in the equation when our neighbor does not good for us.
If I may paraphrase Ben Franklin, he said “let us not make the poor comfortable in their poverty, but let us lead or drive them out of it.” Ol’ Ben understood the baser nature of humanity in which a person would wish to stay poor, if he could survive at that level. Hence he says don’t make them comfortable. He stands in direct opposition to the mindset that says minimum wage lifts people out of poverty, or welfare does. It only makes them comfortable in their poverty; it does nothing to make them less poor. He further directs that we lead, by example of success and teaching, or drive, by making them less comfortable in their poverty. This is perfectly in line with the concept of capitalism. All are free to live up to their potential, not all do because of their choices.
Having said that, those individuals in the time phase of wealth accumulation, suffer the least burden of transfer through taxation with our progressive tax code. Is that fair? At first glance your heart would tell you yes since they can barely survive on their income level. But the answer is no, it is not fair. To shift the burden away from them to those with larger incomes is to provide a disincentive to their progress in their accumulation of wealth. Why should they move forward and carry a bigger burden of the transfer? To what end does it serve them?
We then move on to the Talent phase of wealth accumulation. It is here that the foundations of real prosperity are laid. After spending Time to accumulate wealth to provide for basic needs, and experience that is the development of Talent, in a capitalist society one can reasonably expect to be able to use both their time and talent in the effort to accumulate more wealth to their own comfort and the comfort of their families. Many individuals in a capitalist society remain here in this phase for the duration of their lives, they are happy and content with their level of wealth. There is no shame in that whatsoever. In fact they are essential to furtherance of the economy, it is their talented labor that produces the good that others buy and use every day. Some however are not content and strive for even more. They do this by applying the principles of thrift and denial of instant gratification to amass disposable income that can be used for something other than survival.
Now the question must be asked at this point, to whom do these people sell their Time and Talent? In a capitalist society they sell it to the highest bidder they can find for a profit. That means they sell it, in no uncertain terms, to those members of our society that own businesses that provide goods and services to all or some of the members of society, be they individuals in small business or corporations owned by shareholders.
Here in this phase is the highest burden of transfer. These individuals who have utilized their Time to gain Talent, and then applied both their Time and Talent to the betterment of their lives and the lives of their family, must give up a portion of that betterment in transfer to the government via taxes, which then transfers it to those individuals that did neither. Had only those individuals been led or driven out of their poverty, rather than being made comfortable through transfer the burden would be much less, if not nonexistent.
Proposals of lowering this burden of transfer on those who utilize their Time and Talent ring false on the surface and even clearer when looked at in depth. If it is they who carry the largest portion of the burden who will make up the difference? Those who are more wealthy and can afford it, say the proponents of such things. Well where is the fairness in that? How are these people further motivated to success if the hope of that success is dashed upon the rocky shores of a higher transfer burden? Is it not then in their best interest to remain exactly where they are? Who would wish to be “better off” if it meant increasing their share of the burden for those who have determined themselves comfortable in their poverty? Yet there are those who move on to the next phase of wealth accumulation in the hope that they can achieve enough wealth to counter the increasing burden of transfer.
The finial phase of wealth accumulation is Treasure. It is this phase that those who utilized their Time to develop Talent to accumulate enough wealth that they can put that wealth to the application of making more wealth. This is not greed. It is prudence, it is the concept of providing a good life for your family, providing an advantage to your children, and perhaps your grand children, of ensuring that in your declining years when your Time and Talent begin to fade that you will not be a burden on them.
How then is this phase played out? The accumulated Treasure is applied to productive use in society for a profit. Many use this wealth to start businesses, still other decide to participate in the business others started through stock ownership. Without that investment for the expressed purposes of making a profit our economy comes to a halt.
If individuals to do not create small businesses the products and services they would have created never get to market, not only those products which would be sold for a profit, but the people who make them never have the job that would have been created by that small business.
If individual wealth is not invested through stock purchase in corporations those companies lack the funds to expand and their equipment and labor resources to produce more for society as a whole.
Transfer applies to this phase in many complex ways, through corporate tax, individual tax, and capital gains. Placing a larger burden of transfer on these three groups decreases the flow of goods and services into the market. It creates a situation in which these entities need to make a decision regarding the longevity of their business. Without capital in corporations, which comes from those who have amassed it through the three phases outlined above, they no longer have the ability to expand. While that may sound acceptable, it is the nature of corporations to either expand or contract. If they are not expanding they are contracting. There is very little stasis in the corporate world what stasis there is short lived. This same is true of small businesses who may be taxed at the corporate rate or the individual rate depending on how they are formed. Regardless if they are not expanding they are contracting. What that means is they no longer require the Time and Talent of people willing to work for them. They also no longer need the supplies they purchase from other companies, which ten causes them to contract even further.
Capital gains taxation is a disincentive to the invest process as well. As capital gains taxes increase, the flow of money or capital decreases leading to the same scenario outlined above.
So I have outlined the phases of wealth accumulation. Transfer is considered a subset of taxation in the outlining of the phases of wealth accumulation, hence the lowercase “t”. It exists also as a means of wealth as I mentioned earlier. It is value given for nothing, to those who do no exercise their right to use their Time, Talent, and Treasure for the purposes of wealth accumulation. As such it is punitive to those who do, and rewarding of those who do not. The falsity of fair taxes is belied by the simple mechanics of how they work. The fairness of transfer is rendered false, by the unfairness of the burden it places on productivity.
Taxes = transfer. All taxes are transfers, but not all transfers are created equally. When you are taxed you are transferring a portion of your wealth to the government, whether it is sales tax, income tax, gas tax, luxury tax, etc. Furthermore whenever you buy something you are taxed again. Within the cost of that item is the tax that hose businesses have to pay. A portion of the payment of that good or service purchased is actually a transfer to the seller, so they can transfer it to the government.
Every dime the government has is directly received via transfer from your wallet to theirs. Some of that money is used for the valid purposes of government, but much more is used for the governments transfer to other members of society. This is income or wealth redistribution.
Karl Marx, wrote the essence of communism in his manifesto, “from each according to his ability, to each according to his need.” This is exactly what is happening with the transfer of your wealth to the government. Your Time Talent and Treasure are invested for profit in the betterment of your own life and those you love, only to be diminished by the government’s transfer to those, who are comfortable in their poverty and utilize their Time talent and treasure for things other than the accumulation of wealth to survive. Who can blame them? Why should they do anything when we, through the government, do it for them?
That is the fairness that socialists speak of, for if they really meant fairness then we all could do nothing and the government would give us everything. Of course that begs the question, if all of us did nothing would the government have anything to give?
Capitalism is infinite in its possibilities for wealth, socialism is finite. Socialism must and will end; history has shown this to be the case. Socialism ends when the beast that is government is starved out of existence. If there is no money to give there is no socialism. Sadly this is a long and dangerous slope that one must travel to emerge out the other side to what lies beyond?
“What does lay beyond the socialistic slide, RB?”
Funny you should ask, because you know the answer… capitalism. This is the blessing and curse of the time in which we live and raise our children. Socialism is on the rise, capitalism is on the decline. There will be fits and starts along the way. Perhaps they will take hold perhaps they will not. As conservatives we fight against the decline, but we are greatly outnumbered and will be increasingly so. The only way to arrest this decline is to stop the beast in its tracks. I believe it can be done, by converting the populace to conservative principle. It is not only this, but individuals coming together to lead and drive the poor out of their poverty. The poor will always be among us, but as long as we continue to elect leaders that view the poor as a voting bloc to be made comfortable, the ranks of the poor will continue to swell.
Moving forward – Nov 5 and beyond
Regardless of which candidate is elected to the presidency, conservatives have a tough road ahead. And we can not rest. We must continue to voice our opposition to the socialistic slide, by standing and voting on principle. We must work to build conservative majorities in all areas of the country. We must convert the poor to the hope of individual excellence in stead of the valueless life of socialism.
Most importantly we must conserve. That is after all where the word conservative comes from… conserve. The very word we use as a label implies there is something worth conserving, worth saving. In the past it has been our precious constitution our liberty and freedoms, our principles, time tested and time honored. But now there is something else for us to conserve, and that is our finances over the duration of this down turn.
I have been asked in a few places what my thoughts are on investing in this economy, interesting that some would ask, based on my political writing. Perhaps all conservatives are experts in investing and accounting. I suppose its really something different that all conservatives posses. Common Sense. So I’ll go ahead and talk about my strategy for economic success in and an economic downturn, may it inspire you to find what best works for you.
First and fore most you have to ask yourself what phase of wealth accumulation are you in? Each has its own strategy, some are more complex than others.
If you are only in the time phase, you are the most vulnerable to an economic down turn. Simply put most people in this phase are living paycheck to paycheck. Your goal should be to maintain a source of income. As an employer I can tell you that the last people I lay off are not those I hired last, they are those that have good work ethics, rarely miss work, rarely decline overtime, and show a willingness and ability to learn. It is of paramount importance if you have but one source of income and that source is a wages earned, that you stand out from your co-workers in a good way. I would also suggest you prepare a resume as a just in case, you cannot afford to be unemployed for any length of time.
Secondly I would look for ways to reduce your expenses, the less you spend the more you have available should you lose your main source of income.
By the way this is sound conservative advice regardless of the economy’s condition. The first bit is about developing Talent to take with you else where at a higher profit for yourself. The second is part of the Treasure for your on going financial survival.
If you are in the Talent or even the Treasure phase I outlined above, chances are you are a little less vulnerable depending on the field in which your talents lay. You may have savings, but you likely have many more expenses. The same advice that I outlined above applies to you with a few additions. You should work at preserving your main source of income by standing out from your competition be they co-workers or other businesses. Additionally, you should begin building and working your contact list, find out who is doing well and who isn’t. So that you can be prepared for a job hunt if the need arises. Use the time wisely, update your certifications, and expand your Talents so you are more versatile and therefore more marketable in the job market, but also more valuable to your current position/employer.
Reduce your expenses the best you can. Sacrifice where you can. Build up your savings so you have a cushion should you have a time between jobs. The next part of this is avoid transfer, or taxes. If you have a 401(k) utilize it to minimize your tax exposure, if you do not, use other vehicles, such as IRA’s to do so. In either case watch your allocation to mutual funds.
The financial sector is in turmoil. Depending on your risk tolerance based on time to retirement. You have many options, which ones are right for you is hard to say. But in general, if you are more than 10 years away, you can afford some risk and should not get out of the funds your in, to do so only locks in the loss. You have some time to try and ride it out. I would recommend adjusting your future allocations to something safer for the time being. Treasury bonds, municipal bonds, or medium to large cap companies that are not part of the financial sector, and have good balance sheets. The beauty of mutual funds is they are fairly well diversified, but many have large positions in specific sectors, therefore you have to read the prospectus to know how much risk you are taking on.
In personal portfolio’s its much harder, depending on your methods of stock selection you may be overexposed already. The rule of the day going into a decline is strong balance sheet with ample cash on hand for any company considered for investment, even some in the financial sector. Case in point is Wells Fargo who is largely unaffected by this crisis. Look for the companies that have been prudent during this upswing and are now in a position to buy up those who weren’t.
The key is capital preservation through mitigation of market loss and inflation. As of today inflation rate is 5.37% could go much higher in the future. For the sake of this conversation that is the minimum yield you can tolerate. Anything less than that and you are losing money. Historically, the market averages 11%, however that average has been inflated by this last bull market. The real average is about 10%. If you can beat 10% overall with a combination of safe bonds, and med to low risk stocks you are in good shape.
The stability of bonds is only realized in holding full term, if interest rates go up the short term value of your bond goes down so if you decide to go that route, you may wish to hold on to it for term or you may wish to invest in bonds via a mutual fund that specializes in such.
Regardless of your financial position today, one point advice is still true a penny saved is a penny earned. Well not really considering that one dollar saved for a year to day will be worth .94 cents a year form now at the current rate of inflation. And you can add back in your bank interest of 1 % so it will be worth .95. But it is still 95 cents you wouldn’t have had had you spent the dollar a year ago.
A final word, have faith people. America has been through much worse that this. It is highly unlikely that the entire system will collapse anytime soon. Things will get tough but not impossible.
RB
Keep the faith!