Posted by
A Right Brainer on Wednesday, September 17, 2008 5:26:38 PM
The crux of the matter lies not with voting for or “against McCain, the aisle-crossing, moderate (to put it nicely). Rather it lies in simple facts that people of the “Abstain from McCain” crowd either fail to see or purposely disregard in an effort to add merit and strength to their position.
First let me apologize for the length of this article. Second let me thank you in advance for reading through to the end.
At least one of the popular TH blogs (no I’m not going to name it) is actively promoting an abstinence vote or a vote for a third party candidate. The author of that particular blog is a Californian, as a fellow Californian I recognize the angst with which he stakes his ground. Namely that our (mine and his) votes don’t really matter anyhow. Unfortunately, California has been abandoned by the GOP as hopeless. Regardless of whether that abandonment is justified or not, it is not the focus of this article. I am simply reiterating the fact in an effort to shed light on another person’s opinion, an opinion that is no doubt colored by the fact that his vote is futile anyhow.
I’d like to step back from the political fray of staking out a position and talk facts for a moment.
The majority of the citizens of The United States of America are center-right. Perhaps you have heard that assertion before, and took solace in the fact that at least you were somewhat on the side of the majority. That surely the “right” leaning citizens would boost our cause. By stating that Americans are center-right we give ourselves a security blanket with which to wrap our fears.
What center-right really means is that there is a large group of people with the power to vote that are socially conservative and fiscally liberal or fiscally conservative and socially liberal in some variable mix. These are people that for some reason, whether it is concern about global warming, the poor, America’s reputation, taxes, Constitutional government, judicial excess, pork-barrel spending, etc, find themselves unable to align all their positions to one extreme or the other.
So we have five distinct groups in America:
The extreme left, the center left, the center, the center right and the extreme right. I make no bones about my being on the extreme right.
I am a conservative both fiscally and socially. I am a constitutional constructionist by belief. I, like the author of the blog I referred to earlier, feel abandoned by the GOP at times. But I am not so far off the deep end on the right side of the pool that I can’t stop and apply a little pragmatism to the discussion.
We have two-party system in this great nation. Yes there are other parties, but because their views, and therefore their positions are so narrow, they have no hope, no chance of ever effecting an election as anything other than a “spoiler”. Even that “spoiler” effect is completely fringe and marginal at best. The results of a third party candidacy have done nothing in American politics except to soften the margin of victory of one of the main parties. Let me repeat that, ALL an effective third party candidacy can do is REDUCE the margin of victory for one of the two major parties. It has not affected an outcome of an election to date, furthermore it cannot. Why you ask? Because of its narrowness of position it cannot appeal to the center-right of America.
Given that the country is majority center-right what is a conservative to do? What is a liberal to do?
On the left, you have the pro-abortion, anti war, global village, secular, wealth redistributing, socialists attempting to co-opt the Democratic Party. On the right you have the pro-life, security oriented, evangelical, constitutionalists attempting to co-opt the Republican Party.
Standing in the gap is that ambiguous swath of citizenry called moderates that are predominately right leaning but encompass the entire mix of political reality in America.
There is a reason why Democrats run to the center every election cycle. They recognize that their base is on the extreme left, but that to win an election they must appeal to the center-right majority by at least token gestures (I’ll get back to that in a different article). They cannot win otherwise.
There is a reason why Republicans must make token moderate gestures towards the center. They cannot win otherwise. Only once in the modern conservative movement has a Republican candidate been able to stand on the right and reach into the center. More often than not the Republican candidate has to move toward the center in order to win.
In either case, there is a tendency, after wining, for both parties to pander to their base and hope the citizenry forgets by the next election. All of this in conjunction with the vast complexity that has become our governing bodies… all three Branches.
Now that we have broken it down, what does it mean, what are the ramifications in this election?
George W. moved to the center in 2000, in 2004 he had 9/11 to bolster his conservative street cred. If he hadn’t he would have lost. Why? Because he never did move back to the right, in fact after his election he began some of the most non conservative policies ever. Once elected to his second term he had no fear of losing another election so he had no reason to maintain his commitments to his base.
This brings us to an interesting crossroads in modern politics. On one hand you have more of the same liberalism and on the other you have a moderate conservative. He is different from the current President who has proven to be conservative only in foreign policy and security, and even that is arguable. Some of McCain’s positions are better some are much worse. He is vastly different from the left’s candidate, though at times it hardly sounds like it, given sound bites and campaign positions staked out on the fly.
I’m not here to outline the differences of the two candidates and the current President. Rather to demonstrate the efficacy of voting for the lesser of two evils, unlike the “Abstain from McCain” crowd.
“So Right Brainer, what’s the answer?”
I’m glad you asked. It is NOT the stick your head in the sand (although they refer to it as drawing a line in the sand), vote wasting of abstaining or voting for a third party candidate. The presumption that such an act would have an effect is false. It is not as if there is some single person or even a group of persons monitoring the specific results of a third party candidate or how many registered voters didn’t vote. The demographic of those two options are too large to define reasons behind the actions. It would be a minor blip on the party radar, chalked up to any one or more of a vast multitude of possible reasons.
“So what is the answer!”
It’s the hard road, the road not taken by the anti-McCain people. It is the simple mathematics of elections given the facts listed above, the stark cold reality that if conservatives truly want to have their positions brought to the foreground, they have but two choices. Those choices have nothing to do with a single election or even a chain of elections. In fact they has nothing to do with candidates.
“What the hell are you talking about Right Brainer?”
While both national Parties may ignore the radar blip of both abstaining to vote and a third party taking more than a 2% share. What they cannot ignore is the majority mindset of the people they need to allow them to win an election. That’s right they cannot ignore the majority of center-right citizens! There ARE people and groups of people, who’s sole function is to determine the heartbeat of America, where their concerns are, what is important to them.
That’s where our two choices lie. Either we give-in and suck it up as conservatives and recognize that we can’t always get everything we want or we start moving the center-right crowd more to the right.
“But I don’t want to give in!”
Neither do I, take the angst with which you pile disdain upon the current candidate, and start using it to outline why real conservativism is the answer, quit preaching to the choir and get out and do something to help educate and enlighten those in your sphere of influence. Do it respectfully, but do it firmly. We have the answer. Right now the populace is leaning center right, but more center than right. There needs to be a shift in that polarity to the right.
Only then will The GOP begin to realize that when conservatives run as conservatives do they win. All the pollsters are telling them that the American people don’t buy the full conservative message. As long as that is true, Republicans will continue to move towards the center, continue to aisle cross, and continue to act like Democrats.
In closing let me ask you this? How many people (voters) have you convinced to switch parties? How did you do it? I count many for me, and I didn’t do it by telling them they were wrong, or their candidate was a liar, or giving them doomsday messages about what happens if their candidate is elected and mine isn’t. I did it by reason and example. I encourage you to do the same, don’t give up the fight! Don’t waste your time by throwing away your vote, spend it wisely by calling a friend who is on the left, or undecided and talk to them about what you believe and why. Start the next grass roots movements or become part of the one that’s already growing.
Thanks for taking the time to hear me out.